Swept up in the Sensational
An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing cycle where a particular narrative or viewpoint gains prominence. We have to be careful to discern the magnitude of social problems.
Have you ever looked at some part of your body under a magnifying glass or microscope? It can look weird or gross. In some cases, it can change your perception entirely.
Now, imagine you could do that, metaphorically anyway, with some aspect of society. You might not see the whole picture or be able to take on a perspective that would balance against a more horrible point of view. Your inference system might kick in, leading you to think this is the entire truth, revealed finally through modern media, which provides a superior magnifying glass.
Timur Kuran and Cass Sunstein call this phenomenon an availability cascade.
An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing cycle in which a particular narrative or viewpoint gains prominence. This often happens during an intense national conversation, which increases the narrative’s visibility and makes the issue seem more urgent or widespread. As a result, people are more likely to share and amplify it. For instance, a shocking news story or a viral smartphone video can spark public discussions that spread rapidly.
Such leads to more focus, stories, and discussions on the topic. The narrative gets magnified, distorted, and transmitted through social media. This process sometimes culminates in a call for legislation to address the issues. In some cases, digital mobs ruin the lives and careers of people who might have said something ten years ago that is at odds with the tenor of the national conversation.
The original event is sensational, causing emotional earthquakes that fracture people into tribes, often along partisan lines. No matter what your bias is—and everyone is biased—it is important to learn whether your pet issue is a widespread problem or you’re the victim of an availability cascade.
Because people are more likely to believe whatever is readily available to them, they get swept up, more likely to accept the narrative and to spread it to others. This, in turn, makes the narrative more available, leading to a massive, self-perpetuating cycle that shapes public opinion and sets agendas.
These cascade agendas end up sucking the oxygen out of far more critical matters. The matters we are distracted from don't have a tidal wave of emotion behind them. So, more availability cascades wash through the public discourse and push aside other important priorities.
This is why so many people rioted over George Floyd’s death but have been completely unconcerned about the likelihood of hyperinflation and another Great Depression likely to devastate almost everyone.
Of course, the most cynical people learn to create availability heuristics. Most of those cynics are journalists. Indeed, a shift has occurred. Instead of tracking the truth, journalists write propaganda pieces or butter their bread on the demand for sensation and outrage.
Either way, the effect is the same.
As much as we hate to face it, sensational stories register more than hum drum day-to-day events. Sex sells. Violence sells. Happiness doesn't. Safety doesn't. Contentment is downright boring. Whoever said, blessed are the peacemakers, wasn't in sales.