Read Tetlock's Superforecasting book carefully a few yrs ago, re-reading much...and his repeated championing Foxes and their processes. Much to learn from his work. Yet as one who still believes in First Principles (philosophical, material or economic) I left all his Pleading with a Huge nagging question: "Are Foxes PURE Foxes, or partly Hedgehog? And perhaps more critical...how would they describe themselves per the Foxes/Hedgehog choice -- IF Tetlock ever bothered to ASK THEM?
As with many such issues...I suspect it is Not an either/or...but more a BOTH/AND! And it varies Greatly depending on the TYPE of issue/matter to be forecast. Much more to learn here.
I tend to live on the Fox end of the spectrum. I also believe in Alfred Korzybski's big caveat: The map is not the territory and the dangers of "groupthink" and "consensual mythology."
Rant alert: Have sat in too many rooms with smart people with smart ideas who never ventured out to check on the reality of the situations on which they pontificated. I have a mental folder of cases, based on firsthand knowledge, of journalists and authors making up stories (decades before social media) and of politicians executing decisions based on thirdhand knowledge. Of cause-driven activists cherry-picking the data to make their cases for funding and legislation. I have experienced this issues with people across the political spectrum, including my classical liberal fellow travelers.
Part of my job for many years was to visit communities and workplaces and help folks solve problems. Often the process started with bosses and employees making BIG statements about the situation. And I would attempt to find out if what they were telling me was true. Sometimes it meant reviewing legal documents, visiting physical sites, interviewing lots of people, and holding meetings. I had to explain to people that feelings and opinions are valid, and yet, at the end of the day, claiming events happened, which never did, does no one any good. Let's do science, I would say, quoting a professor friend, and look for physical evidence.
So, I do hold a belief in some universal principles. Notice the plural. I think hedgehogism is being able to have more than one big idea. However, I was often the person in the room who raised their hand and asked the group: How do you know this is true? And yep, sometimes, shown the door.
A one size fits all is never a good idea which is why mandates are retarded, etc. The idea of Equity, Totalitarianism, blanket solutions are ridiculous and more destructive than productive, at least for hedgehogs and foxes. The Gullible’s, those that buy into government fits all salutations, are neither foxes or hedgehogs. Sometimes hedgehogs nail it, but then the paradigm shifts, so it’s important that they continue studying and learning. The wily fox, may have an upper hand on being right more than the h-hogs, but they can also be difficult to understand and illusory due to their lack of commitment or not wanting to be wrong. Maybe follow the fox, but stop every now and then and become a h-hog, which is really what foxes have to do to communicate their ideas. All opinions are my own based on this article…..
This strikes me as a good time for Paralogical thinking where one can hold opposite viewpoints and see validity in each. Perhaps this is the essence of Fox. Good fertilizer for thought with this concept, that's why I like Underthrow.
Curiously, Tetlock dedicates his book, _Expert Political Judgement_ to his 15yr old 7th grade daughter Jenny...Died in less than a yr after her cervical cancer Vaccine...1st symptoms within a few weeks. Tetlock writes:
"This is why world-class immunologists suspect that Jenny had a
triggered by the Gardasil vaccination – for protection against the virus
that causes cervical cancer – that she got in March 2007, just weeks
before her hurdle accident."
Note: Tetlock is FAR removed academic from conspiracies, teaching then at Berkley, now at Penn State. Read their tribute to Jenny here...which pleads for FAR more CDC heretofore Refused research on "other girls like Jenny.:
Read Tetlock's Superforecasting book carefully a few yrs ago, re-reading much...and his repeated championing Foxes and their processes. Much to learn from his work. Yet as one who still believes in First Principles (philosophical, material or economic) I left all his Pleading with a Huge nagging question: "Are Foxes PURE Foxes, or partly Hedgehog? And perhaps more critical...how would they describe themselves per the Foxes/Hedgehog choice -- IF Tetlock ever bothered to ASK THEM?
As with many such issues...I suspect it is Not an either/or...but more a BOTH/AND! And it varies Greatly depending on the TYPE of issue/matter to be forecast. Much more to learn here.
Amen to all of this ^^^^^^^^^
I tend to live on the Fox end of the spectrum. I also believe in Alfred Korzybski's big caveat: The map is not the territory and the dangers of "groupthink" and "consensual mythology."
Rant alert: Have sat in too many rooms with smart people with smart ideas who never ventured out to check on the reality of the situations on which they pontificated. I have a mental folder of cases, based on firsthand knowledge, of journalists and authors making up stories (decades before social media) and of politicians executing decisions based on thirdhand knowledge. Of cause-driven activists cherry-picking the data to make their cases for funding and legislation. I have experienced this issues with people across the political spectrum, including my classical liberal fellow travelers.
Part of my job for many years was to visit communities and workplaces and help folks solve problems. Often the process started with bosses and employees making BIG statements about the situation. And I would attempt to find out if what they were telling me was true. Sometimes it meant reviewing legal documents, visiting physical sites, interviewing lots of people, and holding meetings. I had to explain to people that feelings and opinions are valid, and yet, at the end of the day, claiming events happened, which never did, does no one any good. Let's do science, I would say, quoting a professor friend, and look for physical evidence.
So, I do hold a belief in some universal principles. Notice the plural. I think hedgehogism is being able to have more than one big idea. However, I was often the person in the room who raised their hand and asked the group: How do you know this is true? And yep, sometimes, shown the door.
A one size fits all is never a good idea which is why mandates are retarded, etc. The idea of Equity, Totalitarianism, blanket solutions are ridiculous and more destructive than productive, at least for hedgehogs and foxes. The Gullible’s, those that buy into government fits all salutations, are neither foxes or hedgehogs. Sometimes hedgehogs nail it, but then the paradigm shifts, so it’s important that they continue studying and learning. The wily fox, may have an upper hand on being right more than the h-hogs, but they can also be difficult to understand and illusory due to their lack of commitment or not wanting to be wrong. Maybe follow the fox, but stop every now and then and become a h-hog, which is really what foxes have to do to communicate their ideas. All opinions are my own based on this article…..
I remember reading on ribbonfarm that Taleb is a hedgehog where his main idea is to champion foxes. That sounded right to me
This strikes me as a good time for Paralogical thinking where one can hold opposite viewpoints and see validity in each. Perhaps this is the essence of Fox. Good fertilizer for thought with this concept, that's why I like Underthrow.
Amen to the Feynman quote, a gentle reminder of "all information is incomplete..."
Curiously, Tetlock dedicates his book, _Expert Political Judgement_ to his 15yr old 7th grade daughter Jenny...Died in less than a yr after her cervical cancer Vaccine...1st symptoms within a few weeks. Tetlock writes:
"This is why world-class immunologists suspect that Jenny had a
potentially treatable autoimmune disorder mimicking ALS, possibly
triggered by the Gardasil vaccination – for protection against the virus
that causes cervical cancer – that she got in March 2007, just weeks
before her hurdle accident."
Note: Tetlock is FAR removed academic from conspiracies, teaching then at Berkley, now at Penn State. Read their tribute to Jenny here...which pleads for FAR more CDC heretofore Refused research on "other girls like Jenny.:
https://jenjensfamily.blogspot.com/