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Pat Wagner's avatar

Thank you!

My favorite model of the future is from the book "America 3.0: Rebooting American Prosperity in the 21st Century Why America s Greatest Days Are Yet to Come" by James C. Bennett and Michael J. Lotus. Full disclosure: My partner in crime, Leif Smith and I, are longtime friends of Jim and Mike, and helped with the book a little. Jim and Mike did the heavy lifting.

Here is why I think predicting the future is difficult, inspired in part by the work of Sir Karl Popper.

Why Many Futurists Can't Predict The Future, And Why You Can

1. They use straight line extrapolation; you assume that trends are not independent of hundreds of known and unknown counterforces. You are willing to leap into the unknown.

2. They test their theories by verification (seeking cases that agree); you test your theories by falsification (seeking cases that disagree).

3. They fall in love with some theory and try to make real life fit the theory by ignoring data that doesn't fit; you consider every theory incomplete, and you refine or discard those that don't match the data.

4. They talk only to people of the same political and philosophical flavors; you have allies to advise you from all camps.

5. They assume the world has stopped changing or changes only in ways that are measurable, known and controllable; you assume the world changes all the time in ways that usually are unexpected.

6. They take their data from secondhand and thirdhand sources; you talk firsthand with the sources and go kick the tires yourself.

7. They think that only credentialed people can come up with ideas that work, and they ignore or belittle what their enemies and other baboons think and say; you think that even your worst enemy can come up with great ideas, and you look forward to testing those ideas and gaining from your enemies' insights.

8. They assume the future is hopeless; you assume that some crazy human somewhere is creating new solutions for the worst problems.

9. They are afraid of change; you know the alternative is worse.

10. They take themselves very seriously; you make your predictions wearing a philosophical clown nose.

11. They pretend they are perfect; you keep track of your mistakes and try to learn from them.

12. They think they live in an aquarium where they can control variables: you know you live in the ocean where you rarely can control what's happening.

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John Ketchum's avatar

Decentralism bears a resemblance to Paul-Emile de Puydt's panarchy.

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